If you’ve heard anything about the growing crisis at the border of Poland and Belarus, or anything about gas prices rising in Germany, and you think of them as separate current events, you’re dead wrong. Both are parts of a greater whole, and that is nightmare fuel.
In fact, I’d wager cash that key officials in Germany, France, every country in the European Union and in Washington DC actually are having nightmares.
The big picture consists of the above two crises, but all by design. The man behind it: Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Pentagon hasn’t defined yet what the reason is for an estimated 100,000 Russian troops along its border with Ukraine. This is good; Putin wants to do what he does best, which is to weaponize immigrants, cause humanitarian crises, and then “intervene” to give aid to people in distress. He uses feints and all kinds of distractions, and has been sitting back, watching the West grow weak and divided. We can see in his history that he’s a snake; but exactly what his strategy is, remains unknown.
Quite possibly, he’s squeezed Ukraine and stirred up that country’s rebels in order to provoke the “first shot” by Ukraine or the EU. That would obviously give him the excuse to move troops and armor across the border and claim his right to do so.
But this is unlikely. It could work, but it’s doubtful. He really wants to come out of this looking as if he’s the good guy, and once destabilized sufficiently, Ukraine would be in the perfect position for him to “render humanitarian aid” with his military. Once he crosses the border, there would be the Devil to pay trying to get him out.
Russia’s response so far to inquiries as to the purpose of the massed troops has been limited to, in essence, “We’re on our own soil, so mind your business and leave us alone.”
Washington is playing the same game, but President Zelensky (of “the perfect phone call” fame) is not. He’s readying troops for fighting. I would expect nothing less.
This is turning into the most dangerous situation posed yet by the Russian Federation. More than two countries are already directly involved no matter what the Kremlin denies. And Latvia is moving troops to its border with Belarus.
The countries in yellow and orange on the map would all be impacted by any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Most immediately, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland. They will protect themselves no matter what Washinton does, and will doubtless be backed as well by France, Germany and Spain. If it gets to that, it’s World War Three. I don’t say this lightly; tensions are wound so tight by economic crises and COVID-19 that at some point, there could be no stopping it with traditional diplomatic means. That must not be allowed to happen. Millions would die, collateral casualties and damage would be tremendous, and, eventually, it would go nuclear.
When headlines say the World is worried, it is not a use of hyperbole; we are faced with a belligerent who is crafty, insane and yet quite intelligent, a man with an unshakable hold on power. He doesn’t exactly want a fight, but he’s not afraid of one either. That’s insanity.
While U.S. President Biden is being derided and is taking potshots by even his own party, and his approval rating is terrible, he understands honor, has lived by it, and he will not stand by while Russia invades Ukraine. Right now, I believe the chess match of sanctions, with Russia countering by cutting down gas supplies, is going to be it. Putin will stand down if the West shows more unity and resolve than he believes it is capable of. But do not underestimate him. That’s a mistake.
For now…we silently prepare, breath held, and we wait.
Sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/the-world-is-worried-putin-is-about-to-invade-ukraine-heres-why.html
Memoirs of an American Asshole 